Saturday, November 5, 2016

Non-scientific election predictors



Are you stressing out over the results of Tuesday's impending Presidential election? If so, I will gently suggest to you to "get a life". There are many things on TV preferable to the conclusion of the steaming heap of dung that has been dumped on us over the past 18 months. Here, I picked out some:

NBA TV (6:00 Central): NBA doubleheader, Hawks vs. Cavaliers, Pelicans vs. Kings
USA (7:00-9:00): WWE Smackdown Live
TBS (6:00-11:00): Big Bang Theory binge-a-thon
FXX (7:00-11:00): The Simpsons binge-a-thon
Logo (12:30 p.m.-3 a.m. Wednesday): Three's Company marathon
Animal Planet (2:00 p.m.-4 a.m. Wednesday): Too Cute! marathon. They have a one-minute "Election 2016" listing at 7 p.m., but that's more likely puppies vs. kittens than criminal vs. other criminal.

So, there, anyway, something for everyone, and that barely scratches all your TV alternatives to Tuesday night election coverage, let alone turn off the TV and read a book, go out to a movie, a concert, work out, listen to podcasts, read entrancing-if-rarely-updated trivia blogs, etc. There's also a Cops binge-a-thon on WGN if you'd like an uplifting look into the civic dedication of some of your fellow eligible voters. Or, why not just Netflix and chill? (Note: this column is not sponsored by Netflix.)

Besides, why waste your evening getting your election news from some well-coifed talking head in a TV studio, when you can take it from some of America's trusted election omens? Like:

1. The Washington Redskins.
The Redskins Rule, with a couple of caveats, says the party that controls the White House will retain it if the Redskins win their last home game before the election. This "rule" worked from 1948, the year the Redskins moved from Boston, till 2000. It had to be slightly rewritten (I'll skip that here) to work in 2004, and worked in 2008, but President Obama broke it in 2012, winning re-election despite the Redskins losing their pre-election home game.


2. Schoolkids.
Polls of kids by magazines aimed at them have been eerily accurate for a remarkably long time. The Scholastic publishing company has polled Scholastic News student readers for their Presidential preference since 1940; they've picked the winner 90% of the time, wrong only in 1948 and 1960. Weekly Reader started polling kids in 1956 and was right every time but 1992, a 92% hit rate. Scholastic bought Weekly Reader in 2012 and shut it down (boo!), which could make this year's Scholastic News poll a very strong election omen.

3. Cookies.
Family Circle magazine has held a contest pitting cookie recipes submitted by each First Lady "candidate" since 1992, which has matched the winner of the Presidential election 5 times out of 6. This really appears to be a confirmation that Americans like chocolate chip cookies more than other cookies. The winner is usually a chocolate chip cookie. Michelle Obama lost in 2008 with a shortbread recipe (who thought that would win?); taking no chances, in 2012, she submitted a chocolate chip cookie. As if to reinforce how recycled one of the major candidates is, 2016 has brought the same oatmeal chocolate chip cookie the Clinton camp won with in 1992 and 1996. I thought she didn't stay home and bake cookies?

4. Coffee cups.
7-11 has had an election season promotion since 2000; you can buy a red cup to show you're backing the GOP candidate, a blue cup for the Democrat. This has predicted the President all four times it's been done.

5. The Alabama-LSU football game.
Since 1984, the Presidential winner and the winner of this game have gone hand-in-hand. The game is usually played right around the election, though not always before. In 1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012, Alabama beat LSU and the Democrats won the White House; in 1984, 1988, 2000 and 2004, LSU beat 'Bama and the GOP won the White House.


So, who's going to win?
1. The Redskins' last home game was a 27-20 win over the Eagles, pointing to the incumbents holding the White House. Projected winner: Hillary Clinton.

2. The Scholastic News election for 2016 picked Hillary Clinton 52% to 35% over Donald Trump. A small caveat: Forbes magazine reports Kanye West, Harambe, Spiderman and bacon each received 1% of the vote of 153,000 students. Over 1,500 kids specifically voted for bacon for President? Something doesn't smell right there. Then again, I also would vote for bacon over either major candidate. Mmm, bacon. Predicted winner: Hillary Clinton.

3. Hillary's recycled oatmeal chocolate chip cookie recipe crushed Melania Trump's sugar cookie recipe, 1,623 Facebook likes to 535. Predicted winner: chocolate chips. Er, Hillary Clinton.

4. The current 7-11 coffee cup vote is actually pretty awesome, because for the first time this year, there is a purple cup option for none of the above. Current results: purple 39%, blue 31%, red 29%. I doubt that translates to a shock victory for Gary Johnson, though. Projected winner: Hillary Clinton.

5. We'll have to find out about the Alabama-LSU game tonight, but let's just say it's looking pretty good for 'Bama if you believe in these kind of things.

Note: there is also an election predictor based on Halloween mask sales that has been correct each election since tracking started in 1996. It appears that omen went Donald Trump's way this year. I failed to find a very good source I could include here.

Sorry that I have turned Trivia Road into an abandoned road the past five months. I hope to contribute here in quiz form or long form (or, as today, loooooooong form) much more regularly and also tweet out a trivia fact of the day at @TriviaRoad on Twitter. I've started with daily facts about women world leaders, and already gotten pranked by an Angela Merkel parody account, so I'm off to a rollicking start.

-$-

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